Preview: ‘The Ultimate Fighter 24’ Finale

Women’s Bantamweights

Sara McMann (9-3) vs. Alexis Davis (17-6)

THE MATCHUP: The women’s bantamweight division is a strange, blasted land, peopled by a multitude of fighters who just do not seem to have any place. Hence, this fight. McMann has not scored an impressive win in three and a half years, with her most recent victory coming over Jessica Eye, who has won just one of her six UFC bouts; and it was not much of a win, either. McMann certainly deserved the nod, but honesty compels me to remind you: The fight was a stinker. McMann’s chance for redemption comes against Davis, who has not set foot in the Octagon since April 2015 -- her lone fight since a 16-second loss to Ronda Rousey the year before.

If Davis has not seriously regressed, she still deserves to be called one of the best fighters in this division. In the last six years, she has lost only to Rousey and Sarah Kaufman, a defeat which she avenged with a slick armbar. Still, Davis is one of those fighters whose record is a little mystifying. Call her the Jake Shields of the women’s 135-pound weight class, but Davis seems shockingly unathletic in comparison to her competition. She is an awkward, fairly powerless striker. Over the course of her career, she has landed hundreds of jabs and leg kicks without ever discovering the means to avoid the natural counters to these weapons. Being tireless and durable helps, but Davis has never really looked natural on the feet.

McMann has her in that regard, being a quick and explosive striker who at one time had excellent timing with her straight right hand. Athleticism is no panacea, however, and McMann has yet to build on that striking arsenal in any meaningful way. Worse, she seems to have lost her ability to pull the trigger, throwing only 51 significant strikes in her last fight.

As is often the case in this division, this one could be decided on the ground. McMann has the power to knock down Davis, but in following her to ground or taking her down, she will have to contend with the Canadian’s grappling credentials. Davis has finished eight opponents by submission, while McMann has never looked great on the ground, with performances ranging from hapless to hopeless. At best, McMann can hope to stall Davis, and that could work. More likely, however, she will have to scramble and defend a bit, and that makes this fight far harder to predict.

THE ODDS: McMann (-180), Davis (+155)

THE PICK: McMann’s physical advantages could be her saving grace in this fight. Whether it is a heavy right hand or a well-timed takedown, McMann will need to impress the judges with big, momentum-shifting attacks to overcome Davis’ strategic edge. Davis throws more than twice as many strikes and lands at a higher clip. She is more active on the ground and simply bettered equipped to consistently win rounds. It feels like a toss-up, but I am usually inclined to stick with the smart, strategic fighter. The pick is Davis by unanimous decision.

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