Preview: UFC on Fox 15

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WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHTS

Paige VanZant (4-1, 1-0 UFC) vs. Felice Herrig (10-5, 1-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: The new women’s strawweight division gets its first showcase fight on Fox as rising talent VanZant takes on Herrig. VanZant, who is now training with Team Alpha Male, was the first strawweight to get a deal with Reebok and has breakthrough potential if she builds on her November victory over Kailin Curran. Herrig was a contestant on the last season of “The Ultimate Fighter” and defeated Lisa Ellis at the finale.

VanZant’s game focuses on offensive pressure and relies on a punishing pace to wear down her opponents. She is not a great striker, carrying her chin far too high and displaying poor fundamentals in her punching and defensive technique, but she is game and durable. Her striking is mostly a cover that allows her to work her way into the clinch, which is her real wheelhouse. Once tied up with her opponent against the fence, VanZant goes to work with an endless stream of knees, punches, the occasional elbow and takedown attempts. She does fantastic work in transition and constantly looks for an opening to land a sneaky shot as her opponent defends a takedown or attempts to stand up. On the mat, she is active but maybe a bit too much, especially from her back. Scrambles are her specialty, and she can drop bombs from top position if given space.

Herrig is an experienced veteran with some skill in every phase. She has a background in muay Thai and works behind a crisp jab, front kick and punch-kick combinations at range. The best facet of her game is the clinch, where she boasts strong control, hard knees and elbows and a nice selection of inside and outside trips. On the mat, Herrig has strong hips, maintains position nicely and can hit the occasional submission, although she offers less from her back. She is not a great athlete and does not hit with particular force, however, and she is quite hittable at close range.

BETTING ODDS: VanZant (-140), Herrig (+120)

THE PICK: Given VanZant’s raw skills and the fact that Herrig has never really turned the corner, this is almost certainly going to be a sloppy fight. The real question is whether it will fun sloppy or boring sloppy, and the former seems more likely due to VanZant’s pace. The fight will be won or lost in the clinch and in the scrambles, both fighters’ strongest areas, and I think VanZant’s relentless pressure and cardio will wear down Herrig. The pick is VanZant by decision.

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