Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Mendes vs. Lamas’

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WOMAN’S BANTAMWEIGHTS

Julianna Pena (5-2, 1-0 UFC) vs. Milana Dudieva (11-3, 1-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: “The Ultimate Fighter 18” winner Pena returns to action after a long layoff during which she recovered from a blown knee. She draws Dudieva, a native of Russia’s North Caucasus region who beat Elizabeth Phillips by controversial decision in her UFC debut. The UFC has a lot riding on Pena in a thin division mostly devoid of star power outside Ronda Rousey, and this is a challenging but winnable matchup intended to advance “The Venezuelan Vixen” on the ladder.

Pena is quite raw from a skills perspective but has boatloads of potential, mostly due to her top-notch physical tools. She is an awesome athlete and pathologically aggressive, which allows her to get away with some more and less serious flaws, especially in her striking game. While she may have improved in her time away, and it would be worrisome if she had not, Pena relies mostly on throwing powerful punching combinations as she blitzes her opponent. Her footwork is a mess and so are her mechanics, but the power and aggression are there. Pena does her best work in the clinch, where she displays relentless pressure through a constant stream of hard knees, trips and the occasional throw. Her defensive wrestling is not terribly developed and she relies on her ability to scramble to get out of bad positions on the ground, but from top position, she is a monster. She can find the back in a transition or pound away from half-guard or the mount with equal aplomb. While she is still developing, there is a lot to like about Pena’s game.

Dudieva is an excellent athlete with the standard mixture of skills we expect from a North Caucasus fighter. She is not a technical striker and throws very little volume but whips a wicked overhand right whenever her opponent steps into range. The clinch is her strongest suit, with good control and an array of trips and hip tosses. On the mat, she does solid work from the top but offers nothing from her back and has a terrible habit of giving up position to hunt for low-percentage submissions. In all, Dudieva is dangerous in spots but limited.

BETTING ODDS: Pena (-280), Dudieva (+240)

THE PICK: This matchup favors Pena. Unless her knee injury has ruined her, which seems unlikely given her youth, she should be the better athlete, quicker and more dangerous in the scrambles and the more aggressive fighter. I expect Dudieva to crack the hittable Pena with her right a few times, but the American should walk through those shots, get it to the ground and snag a rear-naked choke. The pick is Pena by submission in the second round.

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