Preview: UFC Fight Night 158 ‘Cowboy vs. Gaethje’

Middleweights

Antonio Carlos Jr. (10-3) vs. Uriah Hall (14-9)

ODDS: Carlos Jr. (-210), Hall (+175)

The book is out on Hall as a fighter, but he remains a fascinating figure. Hall’s run through “The Ultimate Fighter 17” was one of the more impressive showings in the history of the UFC’s flagship reality show, as “Primetime” dispatched of his opponents in brutal fashion, including a memorable spin kick knockout of Adam Cella. Hall looked like he could possibly be the man to unseat Anderson Silva, but when it was time for the season finale, that all quickly fell by the wayside, as Hall looked flat in a decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum. That inconsistency has since become the hallmark of Hall’s career. While he is capable of some of the most ridiculously impressive bursts of violence the UFC has ever seen, all too often he can be lured into a flat loss, if he does not just fold completely. Given that Hall has been open about his history of being bullied growing up, it is difficult not to play armchair psychologist, as he seems to need to be pushed to his breaking point before he starts unleashing everything he is capable of unleashing. At this point, any hopes of Hall recapturing his earlier magic seems dead and buried, but he is still a dangerous opponent in a division as flawed as middleweight.

Hall takes on Carlos Jr. -- better known as "Shoe Face” -- who is trying to recapture his own prospect magic. Carlos Jr. looked like a blue-chipper after winning his season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” at heavyweight, as he is a decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu player who also flashed some knockout power. A one-off fight at light heavyweight did not go well, as Carlos Jr. just got outwrestled by Patrick Cummins, but after cutting down to 185 pounds, his athleticism and massive size for the division really began to pay dividends. A 2016 loss to Daniel Kelly raised some concerns, but in short order that began to look like a prospect loss, as the Brazilian continues to have success taking down his opponents and trying to find their necks. Then the Ian Heinisch fight happened. Carlos Jr. did well enough early on, but an unintentional clash of heads appeared to throw him completely off his game -- enough so that Heinisch managed to take over the fight with his own wrestling as the Brazilian seemed to mentally break. Combined with the comeback nature of the Kelly loss, it is beginning to look like enough of a trend to throw Carlos Jr. into the pile of talented but flawed fighters that make up most of the middleweight division. A win over Hall would do plenty to lessen those concerns.

Carlos Jr. is exactly the type of defensively lax and mentally breakable fighter Hall can annihilate in impressive fashion, but the issue is that the two-time Ring of Combat champion has to make it to that part of the fight first. Hall’s most impressive moments are like something out of a video game, which is a fitting analogy, given that he seemingly needs to take enough abuse to charge up his super meter before he can unleash something truly spectacular. That would probably mean this fight looks something like Hall’s greatest win -- a comeback victory over Gegard Mousasi in which Hall spent a round getting completely outclassed on the mat before scoring a sudden knockout to start the second frame. However, that requires Hall to survive a round with Carlos Jr. in grappling exchanges, which probably is not going to happen. If this makes it past the first horn, it gets super-interesting, but the pick is Carlos Jr. via first-round submission.

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