Preview: UFC 188 ‘Velasquez vs. Werdum’

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FEATHERWEIGHTS

Yair Rodriguez (4-1, 1-0 UFC) vs. Charles Rosa (10-1, 1-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America” winner Rodriguez gets a huge step up in competition in the form of American Top Team’s Rosa. Rodriguez defeated Leonardo Morales and an underwhelming supporting cast on his way to winning the show in November, while Rosa dropped a competitive decision to Dennis Siver in November and tapped Sean Soriano two months later.

Rodriguez is a talented athlete with great physical gifts and a background in taekwondo, which shows up in his arsenal of round, front, side and spinning kicks at range. He integrates his strikes with his takedown attempts in creative ways: In his last fight, for example, Rodriguez side kicked his opponent’s leg and then immediately ducked under for a double-leg. This gives Rodriguez excellent entries, but his technique and finishing ability are still developing. On the mat, he is exceptionally aggressive with his submission attempts and has a nose for positional advances in the scrambles, but is quite raw in general.

Rosa resembles the fighter into whom Rodriguez might eventually grow. He, too, has an unorthodox striking arsenal that relies heavily on round, side and front kicks at range, but he integrates those leg techniques in much more systematic ways with his punches. He is a solid offensive wrestler with a nice arsenal of singles and doubles but struggles to defend takedowns. That is not as much of a problem as it might appear, since his guard is active and dangerous, with a beautiful armbar-triangle chain and an arsenal of leg lock sweeps. On top, he passes quickly and excels at finding the back.

THE PICK: Rosa and Rodriguez are quite similar in terms of skill sets and approach, but the American is substantially further along in his development in every single area. If Rodriguez has made systematic improvements, this could be tighter than expected, but the most likely scenario here involves Rosa working the takedown, passing and locking up a choke. The pick is Rosa by submission in the second round.

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