UFC Fight Night 33 Preview

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Light Heavyweights

Ryan Bader (15-4, 8-4 UFC) vs. Anthony Perosh (14-7, 4-2 UFC)

The Matchup: Bader’s lack of patience once again proved to be his undoing against one of the division’s best at UFC Fight Night 28. The Power MMA Team product dropped Glover Teixeira with a left hand early in their Sept. 4 encounter, but in his haste to finish the fight, he left an opening for the Brazilian to counter with a combination of his own and win via TKO. While the circumstances and opponent were different, this is not new to Bader. He was caught rushing forward against the crafty Lyoto Machida at UFC on Fox 4 and absorbed what turned out to be a decisive counter as a result.

Bader has decent boxing skills -- though his head movement and footwork can be lacking at times -- and knockout power, but a more measured approach could benefit him in certain circumstances. Fortunately for him, Perosh is not the type of opponent who is likely to make him pay for similar transgressions. Though the Australia-based Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt knocked out Vinny Magalhaes with a right cross in his last outing, much of his success stems from a suffocating top game.

On the mat, Perosh will look to pass guard, threaten with submissions and land punches and elbows -- pretty much what you would expect from a man who is a 10-time national jiu-jitsu champion Down Under. However, he will not be able to bully his way into takedowns against a former NCAA All-American wrestler such as Bader, which leaves him forced to outstrike the ex-Arizona State University Sun Devil. Perosh has proven game even when outgunned -- witness his short-notice bout against Mirko Filipovic -- but his age (41) and history (five KO or TKO defeats since 2006) do not bode well for his chances against Bader.

Bader’s muscular frame can be prone to fatigue; if Perosh can survive a couple rounds, perhaps he can secure a surprise submission in the final frame. It is a slim hope, as Bader has in the past fared well in victories over submission grapplers such as Magalhaes and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

The Pick: Bader wins by KO or TKO within two rounds.

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