Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Arlovski vs. Barnett’

Light Heavyweights

Ryan Bader (20-5) vs. Ilir Latifi (12-4) THE MATCHUP: Latifi has looked pretty spectacular in the UFC since dropping his short-notice debut to Gegard Mousasi in 2013. His promotional record stands at 5-2 with three stunning KOs and a brutal submission. One cannot escape the thought, however, that Latifi’s success has been largely dependent on favorable matchmaking. He is extremely powerful and explosive and likes to counter his opponents coming forward. Men like Sean O’Connell, Hans Stringer and Chris Dempsey are perfectly suited to Latifi’s strengths.

Bader, on the other hand, is not. Bader’s only real weakness in a matchup like this is his chin. He has been knocked out three times (and once badly stunned before being submitted), most recently in his ill-fated bout with Anthony Johnson, which ended in just under a 90 seconds. Durability aside, however, Bader is not the kind of man who gets knocked out by Latifi. He does not come forward recklessly, looking to pressure and willing to wade through counters to do it. He does not lead with power shots or fall into the pocket with his chin on a platter. Instead, Bader kickboxes patiently from range. In fact, his style is more akin to that of Mousasi or Emanuel Newton than it is to O’Connell. Recently, Bader has shown marked improvements in the quality of his jab, as well as a more flexible kicking game to bolster his reliable blend of boxing and wrestling.

The wrestling cannot be ignored, either. Bader is by far the best wrestler Latifi will have ever faced. He possesses a powerful shot and a suffocating inside game to go with it. He has outwrestled Phil Davis and Rashad Evans. Thus far, Latifi’s UFC takedown defense is perfect, but Bader brings a different level of grappling to the table.

THE ODDS: Bader (-230), Latifi (+195)

THE PICK: Bader is neither as smooth as Mousasi nor as carefully awkward as Newton, but he is a capable long-range striker. He hits hard enough to command Latifi’s respect and shoots well enough to threaten the takedown even from long distance. The nagging question: Will Latifi land his right hand, and if he does, can Bader take it? Most likely, Latifi will have a hard time finding his range, with Bader refusing to give it to him. So long as Bader can do that for 15 minutes -- and he has before -- the fight is his. Bader by unanimous decision is the pick.

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