Preview: UFC Fight Night 168 ‘Felder vs. Hooker’
Yan vs. Kowalkiewicz
Women’s Strawweights
Xiaonan Yan (11-1) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-5)Advertisement
Weili Zhang currently reigns over the women’s strawweight division, but she is not the only Chinese fighter to cause some damage at 115 pounds, as Yan is undefeated in her four UFC appearances. She is not a powerhouse like Zhang, but Yan is every bit the warrior due to her own aggressive approach, as she consistently crashes in on her opponents to force exchanges and hit them harder than she gets hit in return. That worked well enough against lower-tier fighters, but her 2019 win over Angela Hill was a major step forward in terms of showing proof of concept against better competition. This fight represents another step up, as Kowalkiewicz remains a tough out despite her recent troubles.
It has been a tough slide for Kowalkiewicz, who became an unlikely title challenger for Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2016 but has fallen well out of contention over the last two years. Kowalkiewicz’s success was always a bit surprising. She was never the best athlete and her striking footwork was never the best, but the Polish fighter managed to get by on durability and a shockingly strong clinch game that seemingly always caught her opponents unaware. That combination kept working through her 2018 win over Felice Herrig, but the three bouts since have not gone well. Kowalkiewicz’s durability did not matter at all against Jessica Andrade, who brutally knocked her out in under two minutes, and bouts against Michelle Waterson and Alexa Grasso suggested the book is finally out her. Both women avoided the clinch and hit Kowalkiewicz repeatedly from distance. Between her age and three straight losses, this might be Kowalkiewicz’s last stand, so a win here is crucial.
This is an interesting fight, if only because Yan does not seem like the type of fighter to adjust to her opponents; that could cost her. Again, the book on how to beat Kowalkiewicz appears to be out, and if Yan stays out at range, she should be able to hit the harder shots and theoretically not get hit in return. With that said, Yan rarely takes the path of least resistance, so there is a decent chance that she simply keeps diving right into the Kowalkiewicz clinch, where the Pole can find some comfort, control the fight and ride out a decision. However, given the athletic gap, the likelier scenario has Yan being too quick for Kowalkiewicz to catch, allowing her to land one or two harder punches for each one she absorbs. There is a clear path to victory for Kowalkiewicz, but the pick is Yan via decision.
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