Preview: UFC 263 ‘Adesanya vs. Vettori 2’

Sign up for ESPN+ right here, and you can then stream UFC 263 live on your smart TV, computer, phone, tablet or streaming device via the ESPN app.

Welterweights

#3 WW | Leon Edwards (18-3, 10-2 UFC) vs. NR | Nate Diaz (20-12, 15-10 UFC)

ODDS: Edwards (-600), Diaz (+450)

Is this where Edwards finally breaks free of his status as one of the UFC’s most underappreciated fighters? Birmingham England’s Edwards came into the UFC back in 2014 and was advertised as a knockout artist. However, he quickly got a lesson from Claudio Silva, who managed to win Edwards’ UFC debut on the back of an aggressive wrestling-heavy approach. To his credit, Edwards then focused his efforts on shoring up those holes in his game, even if it took a while to pay dividends. Part of Edwards’ middling start to his UFC career was getting matched against Kamaru Usman early in each man’s tenure with the promotion. After the Usman loss capped off 2015, Edwards went about winning every fight since. There is not really much to say about Edwards’ undefeated streak, which speaks to how well “Rocky” has handled his opponents. Edwards has been able to hold his own just about everywhere with his opponents and has done so in a workmanlike fashion to make his way up the ranks. That combination of high-level skill and a lack of profile left Edwards in the position of having trouble getting fights that could provide upward mobility. He did get main event spots against some of the usual suspects who are willing to take on anyone, such as Donald Cerrone and Rafael dos Anjos. After the dos Anjos win, Edwards was slated to be the first man to take advantage of Tyron Woodley’s post-championship slide, as he was matched against Woodley to headline a card in London in March 2020 year. Unfortunately, that wound up being the first card cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic, so Edwards was left in England as essentially the odd man out. Edwards’ attempt to hold out for a title shot did not work out, so he eventually took a fight against rising prospect Khamzat Chimaev in an attempt to stay active; after a few false starts, that then became a headlining fight against Belal Muhammad in March. From there, things seemingly went as poorly as possible for Edwards. After a strong first round, an Edwards eye poke ended the bout in a second-round no contest, seemingly halting whatever momentum he still held from his prior winning streak. Somehow, that result led to the highest-profile fight of Edwards’ career, as he gets an opportunity to showcase his wares against Diaz.

Diaz’s legacy is set as a star fighter, though it is still unclear exactly where he sits in the pecking order as an actual competitor at this point in his career. If nothing else, Diaz’s 2016 campaign remains the stuff of legend. After beating Michael Johnson on the last UFC card of 2015, Diaz cut an obscenity-laced interview challenging Conor McGregor—a fight that did not seem likely to happen. The Johnson win was Diaz’s first in two years, and McGregor looked set for other things, which eventually became moving up to challenge lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos. However, dos Anjos broke his foot and the UFC needed a replacement opponent for McGregor on about a week and a half’s notice. With Diaz’s challenge fresh in everyone’s minds and paired with his status as a beloved fan favorite, he did in fact get the shot; and he cashed in on it. A Diaz win, surprising to everyone but himself, in turn led to an even bigger rematch that ranks among the UFC’s most commercially successful events of all-time. From there, Diaz was mostly content to live off the profits he made from the two McGregor bouts, remaining inactive until something lucrative happened to catch his fancy. In 2019, Diaz finally ended his hiatus with what figured to be both an exciting and winnable fight against Anthony Pettis, which indeed saw him emerge victorious. That allowed Diaz to step in against Jorge Masvidal in what was marketed as a BMF championship bout that headlined Madison Square Garden. Diaz eventually lost in a game effort, but the fight did nothing to harm his reputation as a charismatic scrapper. A year and a half later, Diaz surprisingly returns against Edwards, and it is unclear at the moment what the angle is from the Californian’s perspective.

Sign up for ESPN+ right here, and you can then stream the UFC, PFL and “The Ultimate Fighter” live on your smart TV, computer, phone, tablet or streaming device via the ESPN app.

There are some paths to victory for Diaz, but it is still completely out of left field that this was his choice for a return bout since it is a tough stylistic matchup against an opponent mostly known for his lack of marketable profile. There are some stylistic advantages for Diaz, namely that his willingness to throw volume is something that has typically caused Edwards some issues. The fact that this is five rounds should benefit Diaz. While a lot of the sport has caught up to the famed Diaz cardio, he should still be able to outpace and outlast Edwards if this becomes a pure striking match. However, both Diaz brothers have historically struggled against wrestlers that can overpower and control them, and Edwards fits that bill. Edwards historically gets more work done in the clinch, which should provide a bit of a better fight for Diaz and his own underrated skills at close range. Still, the physical strength disparity means that Edwards should be able to slow this down and grind Diaz against the fence more often than not. That is the main dynamic here, as the power difference means that even if Diaz can get the volume advantage striking, Edwards should more than make up for it in terms of hitting the harder blows. That does not factor in Edwards’ ability to cut his opponents—something that could cause unfavorable visuals for the notoriously thin-skinned Diaz. This looks like a clear Edwards win. The main intrigue comes from whether Diaz will make it exciting enough for Edwards to get a promotional rub from the victory. The pick is Edwards via decision.

Continue Reading » Muhammad vs. Maia