Welterweights
#9 WW | Stephen Thompson (14-4-1) vs. #14 WW | Vicente Luque (17-6-1)Advertisement
Things have certainly fallen apart for Thompson since the UFC started running shows at Madison Square Garden. Heading into the promotion’s debut in the building at UFC 205, Thompson was among the consensus top handful of welterweights in the world. Since an early-career loss to Matt Brown that only continued to age well over time, Thompson had taken over the mantle as one of the premier karate practitioners to transition to MMA, frustrating opponents that he could not simply knock out first. That UFC 205 card saw Thompson and then-champion Tyron Woodley fight to a draw that was regarded as one of the better fights of the night, thanks to some late moments that saw Woodley nearly score a finish. However, nearly everything since has robbed Thompson of both his success and his action fighter reputation. The rematch with Woodley was absolutely abysmal, as both men learned little except how to avoid the other’s best moments, leading to 25 minutes of excruciating inactivity. Thompson rebounded with a clear win over Jorge Masvidal but soon had yet another staring match, this time in a main event opposite Darren Till that saw the Englishman get the nod. After an injury layoff, Thompson looked to get back in the mix against converted lightweight Anthony Pettis. However, while Thompson was mostly picking apart the former UFC and World Extreme Cagefighting champion, Pettis uncorked a sudden Superman punch that left “Wonderboy” suffering from three losses in four fights. Thompson remains a dangerous and tricky opponent, but his career feels somewhat aimless at the moment given his sudden drop from title contention. For now, he finds himself on gatekeeper duty, as Luque looks to continue his rise through the ranks at his expense.
It appears as though 2019 has been the long-awaited breakout year for Luque, who has seemingly done everything asked of him during every step of his UFC career, constantly bringing the violence while stringing together impressive wins. Luque did not particularly stand out on the one-off American Top Team vs. Blackzilians season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but he managed to stick on the main roster with a few finishes over lower-level competition. A quick win over Belal Muhammad on the UFC 205 undercard was the first real reason to give Luque some notice, and after a setback against Leon Edwards -- which has only continued to age well -- he has gone on a path of destruction. While 2017 and 2018 mostly saw Luque tread water in terms of matchmaking, two of his three 2019 contests have been contenders for “Fight of the Year,” as he has gone to absolute war with Bryan Barberena and Mike Perry. The Barberena fight seems to be where the UFC finally turned the corner on Luque, as he has been featured prominently since, and the time feels right for him to finally get a breakthrough win against Thompson.
This should be an entertaining fight, even if Thompson’s skill will likely prevent it from being the type of all-out war in which Luque has thrived. In fact, this feels a lot like the Masvidal fight, where “Gamebred” managed to cause some issues with leg kicks from the outside but had problems trying to get in on any real effective offense against Thompson’s long stance. Luque is simply too much of a plodder to lure Thompson into his desired war of attrition. He has shown the ability in recent fights to mix up things, kick the legs and try to break down his opponent, but as long as Thompson can keep things at range and circle away, the American should land the cleaner shots as Luque continues to move forward. There is a chance that, at 36 years old, Thompson’s speed and athleticism finally betray him and allow Luque to hit one fight-ending punch, but thus far, any visible slippage for Thompson has been mental, not physical. The pick is Thompson via decision.
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