Preview: UFC 200 ‘Lesnar vs. Hunt’

UFC Interim Featherweight Championship

Jose Aldo (25-2) vs. Frankie Edgar (20-4-1)

THE MATCHUP: Conor McGregor is not willing to let his fight with Nate Diaz go. Determined to get the humiliating defeat back, the featherweight champion is fighting at welterweight for a second time UFC 202, leaving the man from whom he won the belt to battle for the interim title, once again facing off with former lightweight champion Edgar.

Despite his success at 155 pounds, the move to featherweight has undeniably increased the effectiveness of Edgar’s offense. No longer dramatically undersized, his game has evolved marvelously to suit his new home. Now, instead of flitting around on the outside and seeking to draw in larger opponents for reactive takedowns, Edgar can afford to close the gap and wrestle more aggressively. With gradually improving footwork, Edgar now elects to stay relatively close to his opponents, a position from which he can land cracking counters that are only enhanced by his more assertive grappling.

Those enhancements could help him to overcome Aldo, or they could leave him in a world of hurt. “Scarface” has never been easy to take down, and the more aggressive his opponents get, the more damage he tends to do, punishing them for their relentless pursuit of his hips. Then again, Edgar has never struggled to soak up damage, and by staying closer and attacking more, his unparalleled stamina will become a factor, provided he can keep Aldo -- one of the greatest strikers in the history of MMA -- from hurting him badly and sealing the rounds or getting the finish.

Though Aldo has proudly stated that he “learned nothing” from the McGregor fight, it behooves us to consider his mental state going into this, his first bout since the upsetting upset loss. Aldo did not sit on the featherweight throne for six years due to a lack of adaptability. His style has consistently evolved from one fight to the next. Aldo improved his punching mechanics and defense while also learning the overall craft and patience required to stymie one challenger after the other. Having suffered his first defeat in over a decade, Aldo could return harboring some serious doubts, or he could look to display a little of that old fire and reestablish himself as the man to beat McGregor. My money is on the latter.

THE ODDS: Edgar (-115), Aldo (-105)

THE PICK: Like their first fight, this one will mostly take place at range. Edgar has learned to press his newfound size advantage, but Aldo effortlessly stopped the takedowns of the much bigger Kenny Florian and the much more powerful Chad Mendes, so it would be a surprise to see Edgar enjoy any of the brutal top control that has marked his recent run. That still leaves Edgar the option of threatening the takedown and working his strikes, a tack with which Mendes found considerable success against Aldo. Mendes also discovered, however, just how well Aldo responds to pressure. Most opponents are cautious around the longtime champion; the ones who are not increase their chances of scoring big, but they also increase their chances of being hurt. There is a fierceness to Aldo’s retaliatory offense that remains unmatched in this sport. Edgar walked a narrow line last time, scoring enough points to arguably win a few rounds without forcing Aldo into a real fight. If he pushes more this time, expect Aldo to push back in dramatic fashion. The pick is Aldo by unanimous decision.

Next Fight » Velasquez vs. Browne