Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘McGregor vs. Siver’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

Benson Henderson (21-4, 9-2 UFC) vs. Donald Cerrone (26-6, 13-3 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Only 15 days after taking a decision from Myles Jury at UFC 182, Cerrone will step back into the cage, replacing the injured Eddie Alvarez and facing a former World Extreme Cagefighting and UFC lightweight champion in Henderson. Whether this constant activity is utterly brilliant or terribly foolhardy is hard to say, but it is impossible to deny Cerrone’s willingness to step up. Henderson has beaten Cerrone twice before back in the WEC, but he was knocked out by Rafael dos Anjos in a stunning upset in August and badly needs a win to stay relevant at the top of the division. For Cerrone, a victory over Henderson would give him the top-notch win he has needed to stake a claim as a legitimate contender at 155 pounds.

At this point, we have a good handle on Cerrone’s game. At his core, he remains a rhythm-based kickboxer who does his best work moving forward behind a long thip, jab-cross combination and a steady diet of low kicks. When his opponent is watching for the shots to the leg, Cerrone comes up with a high kick. If his opponent tries to pressure, Cerrone responds with a vicious and well-timed counter knee. The former muay Thai professional is a capable wrestler and is almost impossible to get to the mat in open space; offensively, he likes a knee tap and has a variety of finishes for his chained takedown attempts. On the ground, he owns a venomous, quick-moving guard that wastes zero time in either locking up a submission attempt or scrambling back to his feet, and from top position, he maintains strong control and has real power in his ground strikes. The problem with Cerrone’s game, however, is twofold. First, he is a slow starter and will often give away the first round as he gets his timing and sense of the distance. Second, he is by nature an open-space fighter who struggles when his opponent can push him back toward the fence, where his takedown defense crumbles and his lack of head movement and other avenues of effective defense can be exposed.

Henderson is still a fine and evolving fighter at this stage in his career. Where the former champion once relied on his athleticism and focused on relentless chain wrestling and bombing away from top position, Henderson is now a fully three-dimensional fighter with solid-to-plus skills in every facet of the game. His hands have improved dramatically, and he throws a crisp straight left and right hook in combination, which he often finishes with one of his powerful kicks to the legs or body. The real strength of Henderson’s game, however, is the clinch. He is brutally strong and excels at pinning his opponents against the cage and wearing them down with knees, short punches and the occasional elbow, all while pursuing takedown attempts. From top position, Henderson is a monster, with some of the best ground striking in the sport, outstanding instincts in transition and the occasional submission attempt. The problem with Henderson’s game lies in his lack of offensive output. Despite his great cardio, he does not throw all that much volume, and that ensures that his fights will almost always be close if they go to the scorecards.

BETTING ODDS: Henderson -150, Cerrone +130

THE PICK: Despite Cerrone’s great improvements since their first two meetings, the balance of the matchup still favors Henderson. He starts quickly, unlike “Cowboy,” and excels at pushing opponents toward the fence, where Cerrone has historically struggled. The deficit in offensive output could be a problem -- Cerrone throws a great deal more volume than Henderson at range -- but I think the former champion can win the balance of the other phases, dominate on the inside and put in work from top position. The pick here is Henderson by 29-28 decision.

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