Preview: UFC Fight Night 132 ‘Cerrone vs. Edwards’

Light Heavyweights
Ovince St. Preux (22-11) vs. Tyson Pedro (7-1)
Odds: Pedro (-125), St. Preux (+105)

Pedro is one of an exciting crop of newcomers in the upper weight classes: talented, aggressive and athletic. He slugs it out with another athletic specimen in St. Preux, but “OSP” seems to have already reached his ceiling. The former Tennessee Volunteer linebacker is a Top-10 205er who can win or lose against nearly any ranked opponent, such are his devastating offense and defensive flaws. St. Preux is a long and powerful southpaw. His left body and head kick are thunderous weapons, as is his left hand. His back-stepping counter left hook is what put down Mauricio Rua and Patrick Cummins in back-to-back fights and launched him into the top 10. But his striking defense and footwork remain a bit of a mess. While he is fast and long, he rarely jabs and doesn’t maintain distance very well, so even fighters like the squat Ilir Latifi can get inside his reach and crack his stationary chin. Opponents with a willingness and decent pressure footwork can push the Knoxville MMA rep back to the cage, where his high chin is even more vulnerable.

St. Preux is all offense, no defense on the ground as well. He is a capable offensive wrestler with a strange but endearing knack for catching his prey in the Von Flue choke (even suggesting its name be changed to the “Von Preux” choke). But his takedown and grappling defense have been repeatedly exploited by upper echelon wrestlers like Ryan Bader, Glover Teixeira, and Corey Anderson. If “OSP” has the space to work his kicks or is able to seize the initiative in the wrestling exchanges, few in the light heavyweight division are more dangerous shot-for-shot. But his frustrating lack of defense and cage awareness can get him into trouble against virtually any above-average opponent.

As mentioned off the top, the 26 year-old Pedro is an intriguing prospect with a propensity for the finish. The Aussie is a black belt in Japanese jiu-jitsu and a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, so he is a live wire whenever the fight hits the mat. Pedro is still rounding out his striking, but his kicks are extremely powerful, as he turns his hip into them nicely. Push kicks drive his opponents back or to the floor, while his round kicks batter the legs, body and occasionally the head. His straight right hand is also a potent weapon. But his striking output leaves something to be desired. In his last bout, Latifi punished his single kicks with two- and three-punch combinations upstairs. Unable to drag the hulking Swede to the mat, Pedro came out on the wrong end of the kickboxing equation.

Despite the disparity in experience, the line being close between two athletic, powerful, and opportunistic finishers feels right. Exactly what strategy each will choose to employ against the other is unclear. They both want to swing hammers and look for a chance to get on top, without much more direction or a clear idea of how to get there. I will slightly favor Pedro for his more complete ground game. St. Preux has been notoriously hapless when stuck on his back, and I trust Pedro to not give away another Von Flue choke if he finds himself underneath “OSP.” The two hitters exchange heavy leather on the feet but Pedro’s ground advantage swings the scorecards in his favor.

Continue Reading » Clark vs. Eye