UFC 120 Preview: The Prelims

Six prelims, one mildly competent analyst.

You all know how this goes down, so gather ’round for Part 2 of the UFC 120 “Bisping vs. Akiyama” preview madness. The prelims bring the usual heady brew of veterans, prospects and everything in between.

Cyrille Diabate vs. Alexander Gustafsson

Upside meets experience when Gustafsson, the 23-year-old Swede, tangles with Diabate, the veteran face-smasher. Despite the gap in experience, both fighters may have somewhat hazy futures in the UFC; Diabate’s entire career has run hot and cold, while Gustafsson finds himself on the rebound after a reality check loss to Phil Davis.

This time, Gustafsson will have no fear of being pretzeled on the floor, but he needs to be wary of Diabate’s southpaw muay Thai skills. Gustafsson has shown some legitimate pop in his fists and the boxing skill to back it up, but he would be much better served taking the Frenchman out of his element.

Although Gustafsson has never shown much of a predilection for shooting takedowns, he did show signs of a decent wrestling game in his match with Davis. Furthermore, Diabate’s questionable defensive grappling skills are the type of target only the most committed striker would overlook. However, it seems entirely possible that Gustafsson willfully marches down the same path as Luis Arthur Cane and ends up getting stopped.

Of course, wandering into a strike remains a danger regardless, and Gustafsson has the reach and timing to give Diabate some issues. Remember, Diabate has never been the sort of striker who puts together consistent starch jobs. His chin remains vulnerable to the beating that comes with constantly chasing knockouts, and, save for his crushing knee strikes, he generally does not show the kind of kill-shot power necessary to stop world-class competition.

That may seem like odd analysis considering what Diabate did to Cane, but it has become quite clear that Cane is simply vulnerable to southpaws. As long as Gustafsson does not try to stay in the pocket for long stretches, his ability to land at range and hit takedowns should be enough to win this fight.